In calculating moving averages to generate forecasts, the forecaster may experiment with different-length moving averages. The forecaster will choose the length that yields the highest accuracy for the forecasts generated.
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Forecasting starts with certain assumptions based on the management's experience , knowledge , and judgment . These estimates are projected into the coming months or years using one or more techniques such as Box-Jenkins models, Delphi method , exponential smoothing , moving averages, regression analysis, and trend projection . Since any error in the assumptions will result in a similar or magnified error in forecasting, the technique of sensitivity analysis is used which assigns a range of values to the uncertain factors (variables). A forecast should not be confused with a budget . See also backcasting .